The False Promise of Tariffs
How Economic Nationalism Hurts American Workers
In his second term, Donald Trump is once again promising to revive American industry through aggressive tariffs and economic nationalism. He claims that higher taxes on imports will bring manufacturing back to U.S. soil, creating a new golden age of prosperity for American workers.
But we’ve seen this movie before—and it doesn’t end the way he says it will.
Tariffs aren’t a new idea. Trump’s first term already tested this approach, and the results were clear: rather than reviving American manufacturing, tariffs raised costs for U.S. businesses, triggered retaliatory trade wars, and ultimately hurt the very workers they were supposed to help.
How Economic Nationalism Hurts American Workers
In his second term, Donald Trump is once again promising to revive American industry through aggressive tariffs and economic nationalism. He claims that higher taxes on imports will bring manufacturing back to U.S. soil, creating a new golden age of prosperity for American workers.
But we’ve seen this movie before—and it doesn’t end the way he says it will.
Tariffs aren’t a new idea. Trump’s first term already tested this approach, and the results were clear: rather than reviving American manufacturing, tariffs raised costs for U.S. businesses, triggered retaliatory trade wars, and ultimately hurt the very workers they were supposed to help.
Tariffs That Hurt the Heartland
One of the most striking examples came from Missouri. In 2018, Trump’s 25% tariff on imported steel was supposed to boost U.S. steel production. Instead, it nearly destroyed Mid Continent Nail Corporation, the largest nail manufacturer in the United States.
The company’s costs skyrocketed, forcing them to raise prices—leading customers to flee to cheaper, foreign alternatives. Within weeks, Mid Continent’s sales plunged by 50%. The company laid off over 100 workers and warned it might shut down entirely.
This was not an isolated case. Across the manufacturing sector, companies dependent on imported materials faced a cruel choice: eat the cost and risk going under, or raise prices and lose business. Neither outcome was good for workers.
According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, the steel and aluminum tariffs may have saved 8,700 jobs in those industries—but they cost around 75,000 jobs elsewhere in the economy.
Farmers Became Collateral Damage
Meanwhile, American farmers—many of them loyal Trump supporters—were caught in the crossfire of retaliatory tariffs. China, Europe, and other trading partners responded by slapping tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports like soybeans, pork, and dairy. Exports collapsed. Entire harvests were left unsold.
To stop rural anger from boiling over, the Trump administration authorized over $28 billion in emergency aid to farmers—essentially using taxpayer dollars to pay farmers for losses caused by the trade war.
In the end, the tariffs didn’t just fail to bring back lost jobs—they increased government spending, raised prices for consumers, and destabilized key sectors of the economy.
Why Economic Nationalism Backfires
Tariffs are sold as a way to “protect” American workers, but in a global economy, they often do the opposite:
Higher input costs make U.S. manufacturing less competitive, not more.
Retaliatory tariffs close off foreign markets for American exports.
Uncertainty discourages businesses from investing in long-term growth.
Manufacturing is already evolving. Automation, global supply chains, and shifting consumer demand mean that simply slapping tariffs on foreign goods cannot turn back the clock to a 1950s-style industrial economy.
Instead of a resurgence, tariffs often lead to layoffs, factory closures, and bailouts.
A Future of Isolation and Decline
If Trump’s second term repeats these mistakes—on an even larger scale, with blanket tariffs of 10% or higher—the outcome will be worse. Businesses may accelerate offshoring to avoid tariffs. Inflation will rise. Jobs will be lost, not gained.
And once again, the communities that place their trust in promises of economic revival will be left behind—betrayed not by foreign competition, but by bad policies that misunderstand how today’s economy really works.
The reality is clear: true support for American workers requires investment, innovation, and partnership—not isolation and tariff walls.
Up Next
The harm from economic nationalism doesn’t end with lost jobs.
Next, we’ll explore how anti-immigrant crackdowns are creating labor shortages and hurting key industries.
Unraveling Pax Americana
How Tariff Chaos and Economic Nationalism Undermine U.S. Power
For nearly eight decades, American global leadership has rested on a fragile but powerful promise: stability. The Pax Americana wasn’t built solely on military might or cultural influence—it was rooted in the idea that the United States was a predictable partner, a safe haven for capital, and a steady hand guiding global trade and diplomacy.
That foundation is starting to crack.
Donald Trump’s return to power threatens to accelerate the erosion of this global trust. His erratic approach to trade, particularly his obsession with tariffs, may play well at rallies—but abroad, it signals volatility, nationalism, and unreliability. And in a global economy that depends on long-term confidence, that unpredictability could shake the very pillars of American dominance.
How Tariff Chaos and Economic Nationalism Undermine U.S. Power
For nearly eight decades, American global leadership has rested on a fragile but powerful promise: stability. The Pax Americana wasn’t built solely on military might or cultural influence—it was rooted in the idea that the United States was a predictable partner, a safe haven for capital, and a steady hand guiding global trade and diplomacy.
That foundation is starting to crack.
Donald Trump’s return to power threatens to accelerate the erosion of this global trust. His erratic approach to trade, particularly his obsession with tariffs, may play well at rallies—but abroad, it signals volatility, nationalism, and unreliability. And in a global economy that depends on long-term confidence, that unpredictability could shake the very pillars of American dominance.
The Tariff Whiplash
In his first term, Trump launched a wave of tariffs against China and even traditional allies like the European Union and Canada. The justification was “fair trade,” but the execution was chaotic: tariffs announced via tweet, exceptions carved out inconsistently, and retaliatory measures following swiftly.
Now, in his second term, Trump is floating even more sweeping actions: universal tariffs of 10% on all imports, and 60% or more on Chinese goods. These are not targeted economic tools—they are blunt-force instruments of economic nationalism.
The immediate consequences for American consumers and manufacturers are real: higher prices, strained supply chains, and uncertainty for businesses trying to plan for the future. But the long-term consequences are even more dangerous: the erosion of trust in the United States as a trading partner.
Trade Partners Look Elsewhere
Global trade relies not just on comparative advantage, but on predictability. When America becomes erratic—lurching between free trade and protectionism with each administration—other nations seek stability elsewhere.
The EU and China have accelerated trade talks, including strengthening the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment.
Latin American and Southeast Asian nations are deepening regional pacts to reduce reliance on the U.S. market.
Countries are diversifying currency reserves and entering non-dollar trade agreements (such as BRICS cross-border payment systems or China’s yuan-based oil contracts).
In essence, the U.S. is no longer the reliable engine of global capitalism—it’s becoming the wild card.
The Treasury Time Bomb
Perhaps the most overlooked risk is what happens if China and other large holders of U.S. Treasuries begin to divest.
China currently holds nearly $800 billion in U.S. debt—a number that has been shrinking steadily since Trump’s first term. While a full sell-off is unlikely (as it would hurt China, too), continued drawdown and diversification could still raise U.S. borrowing costs, especially if paired with domestic fiscal instability.
If countries no longer see U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe asset—because U.S. politics are increasingly erratic, or because they fear being targeted by economic sanctions—they will slowly shift to alternatives: gold, euro-denominated bonds, or regional reserve assets.
That shift threatens America’s ability to borrow cheaply, fund social programs, or maintain its military edge. In other words, economic nationalism at home could undermine national strength abroad.
The Bigger Picture: Trust Is Power
Pax Americana didn’t just happen—it was earned. Through decades of (mostly) consistent trade policy, strong institutions, and leadership in global crises, the U.S. convinced the world to bet on its system. That trust made the dollar the world’s currency, made U.S. markets the world’s investment safe haven, and gave America enormous geopolitical leverage.
Trump’s second-term plans threaten to squander that trust.
Tariffs don’t just disrupt trade—they send a message: the rules can change at any moment, depending on who holds power in Washington. Allies are watching. Rivals are taking notes. And the global order is already shifting.
If Pax Americana ends, it won’t be with a bang—it will be with a shrug. A quiet turning away. One trade deal here. One currency swap there. And eventually, the world will stop waiting to see what America does next.
Coming This Week: False Promises
The end of Pax Americana isn’t inevitable.
But if we ignore the patterns — economic chaos, authoritarian overreach, hollow promises — we risk losing more than global leadership.
In our next series — False Promises — we’ll expose how Trump’s second-term policies have already failed elsewhere — and what a smarter, stronger path forward could look like.
The truth is clear. The future is still ours to shape.